Supply and demand pressure accumulation in late April corrugated paper market prices or still pressure

2024-04-18

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Supply and demand pressure accumulation in late April corrugated paper market prices or still pressure

Corrugated paper price operation under pressure

Since April corrugated paper prices are still under pressure, supply and demand pressure accumulation, market trading is relatively light, the overall speed of goods in the south faster than in the north. According to monitoring data, as of April 15, the average price of China's AA grade 120g corrugated paper was 2720 yuan/ton, down 4.71 percent from the same period last year, 3.75 percent from March 15 and 0.69 percent from April 1.

Judging from the current market performance, supply-side pressure continues to increase, while demand-side follow-up is limited, and corrugated paper price pressure is more obvious.

The supply side is loose.

Recently, the corrugated paper market has not seen obvious downtime maintenance, the market start-up operation is relatively stable, the overall change is limited, the output supply is sufficient. According to monitoring data, as of April 11, corrugated paper weekly start load rate of 60.45, up 1.30 percentage points from last week, compared with last week from decline to increase, production increased by 2.19.

Inventory pressure is still more obvious. According to data monitoring statistics, as of April 11, corrugated paper inventory increased in a narrow range, corrugated paper sample enterprise inventory of 434700 tons, an increase of 0.51 over the same period last week, compared with last week from a decline to an increase. Inventory pressure in South China has improved, while trading in East China and North China is relatively flat, and corporate inventories show an increasing trend.

Demand-side follow-up is limited.

From the paper factory shipments, April is still in the traditional industry off-season. According to the car terminal data of corrugated and boxboard paper, according to the relevant data released by the Passenger Association, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars from January to March were 4.829 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.1. The important reason is the recovery of post-holiday consumption. With the heating up of price adjustment, the market has formed an obvious consumption wait-and-see phenomenon, coupled with the attention to some new cars and the expectation of the trade-in policy, the market operation is relatively flat. Retail sales in the passenger car market from April 1 to 6 recorded 206000 vehicles, down 8% year-on-year and 3% from the same period last month. Terminal orders performance is light, downstream orders flat, some packaging plants to bulk production-oriented, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, most still digest the pre-inventory, just need the right amount of replenishment. Downstream raw paper inventory days recently reached 15 days up and down, in a relatively low position in history.

In addition to the factors of increased supply and flat demand performance, the recent corrugated paper market is more wait-and-see sentiment. Although the prices quoted by the southern bases of large-scale paper mills have risen since April, the poor implementation of profit-sharing operations in the northern region and the poor implementation of small and medium-sized manufacturers in the market have made the operators more cautious in their operations and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

In late April, the corrugated paper market is still running under pressure.

From the demand side, April is still in the relative demand off-season, the follow-up market demand is expected to be insufficient, the terminal order follow-up is relatively limited, the downstream take goods replenishment enthusiasm is not good, the demand side operation is weak. From the supply point of view, the supply-side performance in the second half of the year is still relatively loose, although individual paper mills issued a new shutdown maintenance plan, but temporarily not into the scale, the impact on the market is limited. In the case of low enthusiasm for downstream goods, paper mill inventories are expected to continue to be under pressure. In addition, from a seasonal point of view, near the May Day holiday, the probability of pre-holiday paper mills to launch holiday discounts is greater, aggravating the market bearish sentiment.

On the whole, the demand side follow-up is limited, the supply side pressure increases, the market supply and demand game continues, wait-and-see and bearish sentiment increases, it is expected that the corrugated paper market in late April or continue to be under pressure, the overall average price performance or relatively weak, but individual early low-cost manufacturers or stable mainly.